Crypto Panic Has Created A Massive Opportunity
Bitcoin crash, Saylor's Demise And The Crypto Play I'm Buying
TL;DR
Bitcoin’s correction is tracking almost exactly on schedule with prior cycles, and the technicals are flashing something I haven’t seen in months
Michael Saylor just broke a four-year promise, and the fallout is dragging down names that have nothing to do with his problem
I’m revisiting a bold call I made months ago, being honest about what I got wrong, and updating my target for where this name goes next
Bitcoin’s Correction Is Right on Schedule
Bitcoin is down 53% from its October peak, and I don’t think most retail holders have priced in what that actually means.
We’re sitting around $59,000, roughly eight months into a post-top correction that’s tracking almost exactly on schedule with the 2018 and 2022 cycles.
The April 2024 halving delivered its bull run, topping out near $126,000 in October.
Now we’re in the bear market phase, and as we can see above, perhaps getting close to ending it.
We’re now 26 months post halving. Bitcoin typically bottoms out 30 months after halving.
We Are Close!
From a risk/reward perspective, the mistake now would be to not buy Bitcoin.
We actually made a lower low, which potentially completes an ABC correction we’ve been tracking from the top.
We’re basically at the mid range of my BTC target. If we break this support, the door opens to 40K.
Yes, I’d love to see this, but I almost think buying BTC would just be way too easy at that level.
So far, we have some early signs of reversal.
Bullish divergence in RSI and MACD, and our Buy/Sell Indicator did signal a Buy last week.
The sentiment, the timing, and the technical indicators are telling me to buy, even if others are selling.
Saylor Breaks His Own Religion
For four years, Michael Saylor built his entire public identity around one sentence: we don’t sell.
It wasn’t just a strategy, it was a dogman, and hundreds of imitators built “digital asset treasury” companies trying to copy the playbook.
But Strategy recently disclosed it had sold 32 Bitcoin between May 26 and May 31, at an average price of $77,135, netting roughly $2.5 million to fund the dividend on its STRC preferred stock.
In isolation, that’s nothing. Strategy still holds over 843,000 Bitcoin. But symbolically, it was the first crack in four years of dogma, and the market treated it that way.
MSTR stock has fallen roughly 45% over the past month and, at times, has traded near or even below the net asset value of its own Bitcoin holdings, which tells you the premium investors once paid for leveraged BTC exposure through the stock has essentially evaporated.Technically speaking, we’re approaching an important level of resistance in MSTR, as we get close to the levels where we topped and hovered back in June.
But am I buying MSTR here? Not really.
There’s still one stock in the crypto realm which I like the most.
It’s trading near its all-time low, and I’m using this time to pick up more shares in what I believe will one day be a trillion-dollar company.
