Summary
Earnings season is in full swing, and investors have not been pleased so far.
$GOOGL and $TSLA reported yesterday, and both stocks are down after hours.
Tech continues to be out of fashion. Could there be some opportunities in the small-caps?
As always, we review the charts for the main indexes and stocks we track.
And of course, an update on our Swing Portfolio.
Market Overview
While tech is still the best performer over the last three months, it has taken a beating in the last week and month.
The situation has not been helped at all so far by the recent earnings. Let’s have a quick look.
Google Keeps It Up
The company actually beat on earnings and revenue, but still the stock is down after hours by over 2%.
Google managed to maintain double digit YoY growth for its YT ads and Google search segments.
My appreciation of this stock is no secret.
I like this stock, and it’s one where I’m looking to buy meaningful dips at key support levels. More on that below.
Tesla: Keep On Dreaming
We pointed out a favourable set-up in TSLA a few months back, and the stock has indeed rallied a good amount since then, but it is giving up some returns, now down over 7% after earnings.
Tesla’s core business is in decline as we can see in the graphs and table above. However, the company is doing very well in terms of energy storage.
Meanwhile, Musk continues to dangle the AI carrot in front of investors. These AI plays include:
Optimus
DoJo supercomputer
FSD
But as is usual with Musk, he is over-promising and under-delivering.
Tesla’s robotaxi event has now been delayed to October 10th for example.
All in all, not a great start for tech earnings. Let’s review the charts now to see what we can expect moving forward.
The best ETH ETF
The Ethereum ETF has been approved, and I covered this in a recent SA article.
I looked at fees and determined that the Grayscale Mini Trust could likely be the best option out there.
However, ETH ETFs could have an underwhelming effect on markets, as they will not provide staking rewards. This may limit their appeal.
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SPX
The S&P 500 is pulling back as we expected after topping out and giving us a bearish divergence in the RSI.
Taking the length of this last wave A rally, we can see that we bounced off the first key fib level, and back above the 20 EMA.
However, I’d say we now have a set-up to break lower, and perhaps target the 38.2% retracement at 5400, which would imply re-testing the 50 EMA.
NDX
The Nasdaq has moved back even more and is bouncing off the 50 EMA.
I believe there’s room to run down to 19,000, which is the 50% retracement of this rally. We have some support there in terms of volume.
No signs of reversal yet.
USO
Oil consolidating as we expected, now re-testing the lower area of the triangle.
EEM
Emerging market snow found some support at the 42-5 level, but the 50 EMA has been lost, and we now have room to run into the target box.
IWM
The Russell squeezed up but we should see this slide back down and re-test the 205 area. However, we have some encouraging momentum here and I believe rotation could continue into the end of the year.
GLD
Gold re-testing the 320 EMA but is still very bullish.
TSLA
Now, a look at TSLA since we just had earnings.
We are set to open around $225. As long as we remain above $300, which is the 61.8% retracement I remain bullish.
I believe we are still in an uptrend.
GOOGL
GOOGL bounced off the 50 EMA, but will likely re-rest these levels. The RSI is neutral, though the MACD is beginning to curl up. If this sell-off in tech intensifies then the box below is our target buy zone.
PLTR
Palantir is still grinding higher, though it is showing a bearish divergence in the RSI and a possible bearish MACD crossover. Earnings will likely lead to a big move which either beaks us above $30 or below $22.
COIN
Coinbase broke out of its range and also got a bullish crossover. Overall, I like crypto names at these levels, though we could see a slight sell-off in the next week.
CRWD
Can’t ignore the elephant in the room. CRWD has sold off hard since it dropped the ball. $250 is an initial support level and the 50% retracement from this rally.
However, we could easily retest the 200 week EMA. The most reliable support comes in at around $170, where there is plenty of volume support.
Swing Portfolio Update
Up 25% since inception.
New Buy Order:
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