In our last Macro post, we discussed the similarities between today’s environment and 1997.
Yes, we have:
Geopolitical risk
Currency turmoil
Credit risk
Worsening macro indicators
However, we also have:
A Fed ready to cut
Resilient GDP
A technologically driven economic boom
In 1997, the NASDAQ lost almost 30% in 3 months, only to come roaring back.
We have a similar set-up today, but it ultimately comes down to whether the U.S. and global economies can avoid a recession.
To determine this, I have put together a Macro Matrix, which tracks 12 Macro indicators and should give us a pretty good warning before a recession happens.
Below we will:
Update these indicators
Reach a new Recession risk score
Discuss key macro variables, including War, Fed policy and Inflation
Lay out a clear strategy to stay on the right side of the market over the next 12 months
